We’ve done Senate cattle calls several times in the past, so let’s try something a little more challenging: ranking the House races.
You know what to do: List the competitive House races (as far down as you want to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping. I would suggest making two lists — one for Republican vulnerabilities and the other for Democratic defenses.
You may find SSP’s Competitive House Ratings to be helpful in remembering all the targeted races this year, but don’t let our ratings influence your list. After all, campaigns will be filing their second quarter fundraising reports with the FEC over the next couple of weeks, and our ratings will be due for another revision by then.
REPUBLICAN SEATS IN DANGER:
1. Alaska AL (ONLY if Young is the GOP nominee)
2. New York 25 (Walsh-OPEN)
3. New York 13 (Fossella-OPEN)
4. Illinois 11 (Weller-OPEN)
5. Arizona 01 (Renzi-OPEN)
6. Ohio 15 (Pryce-OPEN)
7. Ohio 16 (Regula-OPEN)
8. Michigan 07 (Walberg)
9. New Jersey 03 (Saxton-OPEN)
10.Connecticut 04 (Shays)
DEMOCRATIC SEATS IN DANGER:
1. Texas 22 (Lampson)
2. New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter)
3. Pennsylvania 10 (Carney)
4. Oregon 05 (Hooley-OPEN)
5. Florida 16 (Mahoney)
6. New York 20 (Gillibrand)
7. Louisiana 06 (Cazayoux)
8. Kansas 02 (Boyda)
9. Georgia 08 (Marshall)
10. Arizona 08 (Giffords)
And…just for some extra flavor:
SLEEPER RACES (GOP)
1. CA-50: Bilbray (R) vs. Nick Leibham (D)
2. AL-03: Rogers (R) vs. Joshua Segall (D)
3. LA-04: Open Seat (Jim McCrery)
4. MD-01: Open Seat (Wayne Gilchrest)
SLEEPER RACES (DEMS)
1. KS-03: Moore (D) vs. Nick Jordan (R)
2. NY-01: Bishop (D) vs. Lee Zeldin (R)
3. PA-11: Kanjorski (D) vs. Lou Barletta (R)
4. UT-02: Matheson vs. Bill Dew (R)*
*–The Millionaires Amendment decision may factor in here HUGE.
New York 13
New York 25
Arizona 1
Virginia 11
New Jersey 3
Illinois 11
New Jersey 7
Ohio 15
New Mexico 1
Minnesota 3
Ohio 16
Alabama 2
Alaska AL
Connecticut 4
Michigan 7
Illinois 10
Michigan 9
Ohio 1
New Mexico 2
Washington 4
Nevada 3
North Carolina 8
New York 29
Florida 24
Louisiana 4
Wyoming AL
Colorado 4
Ohio 2
New York 26
Missouri 6
Outside of the open seats it is still quite tough to rank at the moment.
Lampson
Mahoney
Shea-Porter
Carney
Boyda
Marshall
McNerney
Gillibrand
Giffords
Yarmuth
Alabama 5
Oregon 5
Hill
Cazayoux
Kanjorski
Altmire
Moore
Kagen
Mitchell
Rodriguez
But I’m holding out until the Q2 numbers are in.
The Kay Barnes-Sam Graves race in the MO-06 is worthy of attention, but its odd that it is getting so much more attention than MO-09 when both MO-06 and MO-09 have similar partisan indexes and MO-09 is an open seat, whereas MO-06 would require overthrowing an incumbent.
I don’t think I know enough outside my state to rank all of the other races.
I’m only including races that I have at lean hold or worse for the incumbent party:
Democratic Seats (19):
Tossup (3):
1. TX-22
2. FL-16
3. PA-10
Lean Dem (16):
4. LA-06 – With the the assumption Jackson runs 3rd party
5. NH-01
6. KS-02
7. GA-08
8. WI-08
9. AL-05
10. KY-03
11. CA-11
12. PA-04
13. OR-05
14. AZ-05
15. AZ-08
16. MS-01
17. IN-09
18. NY-20
19. IL-14
Republican Seats (38):
Lean Dem (9):
1. NY-25
2. VA-11
3. NY-13
4. IL-11
5. OH-16
6. AZ-01
7. NJ-03
8. NY-26
9. NJ-07
Tossup (14):
10. NM-01
11. OH-15
12. MN-03
13. AK-AL
14. NY-29
15. MI-07
16. CO-04
17. NC-08
18. CT-04
19. NV-03
20. IL-10
21. LA-04
22. WA-08
23. OH-01
Lean Rep (15):
24. MO-06
25. MI-09
26. NM-02
27. MO-09
28. FL-08
29. FL-24
30. AL-02
31. OH-02
32. WY-AL
33. FL-21
34. FL-13
35. FL-25
36. VA-02
37. ID-01
38. CA-04
If I go on to include races that I see as likely Dem or Likely Rep the deck is stacked even heavier against republicans. I fully expect many democratic seats to disappear from the list by election day and many more republican seats added.
Lean D:
IL-11, NY-13 & 25, VA-11;
Then NM-01, NJ-03 & 07, OH-15 & 16, CO-04, IL-10, MI-07, MN-03, NC-08, WA-08, AZ-01, OH-01, NY-29, CT-04, AK-AL (if Young), NV-03, FL-24.
Next MO-09, AZ-03, LA-04, MI-09,
Hopefully VA-05 & 10, FL-25, OH-02, WV-02.
We lose none.
With voters paying Republican gas prices, McCain doddering and stumbling, and Obama generating incredible energy, there really aren’t any safe seats.
The Democracy Corps poll convinced me that Republicans are in deep, deep, trouble. Right now, they’re wondering why they can walk two hundred yards further down the sand towards the ocean. Pretty soon they’re going to look up and see 200 feet of water bearing down on them; their frantic scrambling would be tragic if they hadn’t earned it with their venality, arrogance, and stunning incompetence.
So take the whole grid and shift it over two columns. That means there are no vulnerable Dem seats and 80 Republican seats in play.
Money won’t help them in any race where there is a Democratic candidate with a whisper of intelligence, competence, and integrity.
This is definitely going to jump around after the 2Q numbers (I can’t wait) but here goes.
Republican held seats:
1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – – R2B
Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland
2. Illinois-11*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga
3. New York-13*** (D+1) – – – R2B
Mike McMahon v. ???
4. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – – R2B
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
6. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – – R2B
John Adler v. Chris Myers
7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance
—————————————
8. New York-26*** (R+3)
Jack Davis v. Chris Lee
9. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
10. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – – R2B
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
11. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – – R2B
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
12. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – – R2B
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
13. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – – R2B
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson
14. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – – R2B
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
15. Washington-08 (D+2) – – – R2B
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
—————————————
16. New York-29 (R+5) – – – R2B
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – – R2B
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
18. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – – R2B
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
19. Florida-24 (R+3) – – – R2B
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
20. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – – R2B
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
21. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – – R2B
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
22. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – – R2B
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
23. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – – R2B
Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
24. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – – R2B
Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter
25. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – – R2B
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
—————————————
26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – – R2B
Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman
27. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – – R2B
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
28. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – – R2B
Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon
29. California-04*** (R+11) – – – R2B
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
30. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – – R2B
Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley
*** = Retiring Incumbent
R2B = Red to Blue
Three big things I take into account –
1. Strength of the candidates
2. Fundraising
3. Color of the district
1-15 are likely/lean pickup
15-25 are toss up
26-30 are lean retention
My list goes on to likely retention and races to watch, but I am sticking to 1-30 so this isn’t the longest comment ever. In places where the candidate isn’t chosen yet, I most likely picked the top fundraiser so far.
Democratic held seats:
1. Texas-22 (R+15)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
2. Kansas-02 (R+7)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun
3. Florida-16 (R+2)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey
—————————————
4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
7. Georgia-08 (R+8)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
9. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
10. Mississippi-01*** (R+10)
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
11. Louisiana-07 (R+7)
Representative Don Cazayoux v. ???
12. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
13. Arizona-08 (R+1)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
14. Indiana-09 (R+7)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
15. New York-20 (R+3)
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
16. California-11 (R+3)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
17. Indiana-08 (R+9)
Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode
—————————————
18. Arizona-05 (R+4)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
19. Connecticut-05 (D+4)
Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello
20. Texas-23 (R+4)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
22. Ohio-18 (R+6)
Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey
23. Georgia-12 (D+2)
Representative John Barrow v. John Stone
24. Minnesota-01 (R+10)
Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day
25. New York-19 (R+1)
Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor
1-3 are toss up
4-17 are lean retention
18-25 are likely retention
folks; in 2006, not ONE house democratic incumbent lost; NOT ONE; therefore, i am stating it first, HERE on this thread that NO democratic incumbents lose this fall(with the proviso of the “live boy, dead girl” scenario not playing out); this cycle bodes MUCH BETTER for our party than 2006, and we all know that 2006 was a GREAT year, i say here and now, 2008 will be even BETTER
Mostly just a cut and paste from what I posted on another site…
Lean takeover
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
Toss-up
5. Alaska
6. Oregon
7. Mississippi – B
8. Minnesota
9. Maine
Lean retention
10. North Carolina
11. Kentucky
12. Kansas
13. Nebraska
14. Texas
15. Oklahoma
The Republicans have publicly stated that they are giving up on Virginia and New Mexico and are just fighting to prevent the Democrats from reaching 60. So it seems unlikely that they will sink much in the way of resources into trying to win Louisiana. Hence leaving it off the list.
I live in NY-20, and there is no way Sandy Treadwell is going to knock off Gillibrand. I expect this to be at least 54-46 on election day.
The Republicans don’t even like Treadwell. He may have a primary against a nobody, and it is not a lock that he will win that contest.
If this race is really the Republican’s 6th best hope, they will be in for a really rough night.
Francis Vecellio
Democratic Seats (15):
Tossup (3):
1. TX-22
2. FL-16
3. PA-10
Lean Dem (16):
4. AZ-05
5. AZ-08
6. KS-02
7. NH-01
8. MS-01
9. KY-03
10. WI-08
11. PA-04
12. IN-09
Projected losses: 0
Republican Seats (38):
Lean Dem (10):
1. NY-25
2. NY-13V
3. IL-11
4. AZ-01
5. OH-16
6. NJ-03
7. NY-26
8. NJ-07
9. AK-AL
10. OH-15
Tossup (15):
10. NY-29
11. NM-01
12. MI-07
13. MN-03
14. NC-08
15. CO-04
16. LA-04
17. WA-08
18. CT-04
19. NV-03
20. IL-10
21. OH-01
22. MI-09
23. OH-02
24. WY-AL
25. ID-01
Lean Rep (18):
26. MO-06
25. NM-02
26. CA-04
27. FL-25
28. FL-21
29. FL-24
30. WV-02
31. MO-09
32. FL-08
33. VA-02
34. FL-13
35. AL-02
36. VA-05
37. CA-46
38. MD-01
39. NJ-05
40. MN-06
41. NV-02
42. TX-10
43. VA-10
44. TX-07
Projected Pickups: 32
I’m just gonna go with GOP seats that are likely to flip as well as total Dem seats that are in danger (lists should be about even, lol).
GOP – lean takeover
1. NY-13 – OPEN (This just gets worse and worse each day)
2. NY-25 – OPEN
3. IL-11 – OPEN
4. VA-11 – OPEN
5. AZ-1 – OPEN
6. NJ-7 – OPEN
7. OH-16 – OPEN (starting to be closer to toss up here than lean takeover but I remain confident we are favored to take the following)
8. NJ-3 – OPEN
9. OH-15 – OPEN
10. NM-1 – OPEN
11. MN-3 – OPEN
There are 2 other races I consider dems to be favored in, LA-4 which I am not listing due to a lack of personal knowledge on the race, and AK-AL which I am not listing due to a still heavily contested primary. I also am feeling really good about CT-4 (Shays), NV-3 (Porter), and CO-4 (Musgrave) but not so much that I say we are favored to win those seats.
Dem Defense
1. TX-22 – Lampson (My congressional seat, feels more like a takeover right now)
*gap in tiers to toss-up
2. FL-16 – Mahoney
3. PA-10 – Carney
4. NH-1 – Shea Porter
*gap in tiers to lead Dem
5. KS-2 – Boyda (That poll a month back made me feel good)
6. GA-8 – Marshall
7. CA-11 – McNerny (Ha Ha, Andall’s fundraising)
8. AL-5 – OPEN (similar situation to MS-1, conservative, but not Republican)
Not feeling to bad about many of our other seats. I’m waiting to rank LA-6 so as to see who is challenging Cazayoux. The millionaires amendments may cause us to sweat in IN-9 (Hill) and NY-20 (GIllibrand), but will help us in WI-8 (Kagen), but as for now I’m just watching those races as I am with AZ-5 (Mitchell), AZ-8 (Giffords), and somewhat with Foster in IL-14 (again millionaire’s ruling). Also feeling real good about MS-1 (Childers).
Top 40 Red -> Blue
NY-25
VA-11
IL-11
OH-16
NJ-03
AZ-01
NJ-07
NY-13
NM-01
OH-15
MN-03
AK-AL
IL-10
OH-01
WA-08
NC-08
MI-07
NY-26
CO-04
CT-04
NY-29
LA-04
NV-03
MI-09
MO-06
VA-02
FL-24
CA-04
AL-02
FL-13
OH-02
NM-02
IL-06
WV-02
PA-03
IL-18
FL-15
MO-09
PA-06
MN-06
Top 20 Blue -> Red
TX-22
KS-02
AL-05
FL-16
LA-06
MS-01
OR-05
PA-10
NH-01
GA-08
IN-09
CA-11
WI-08
IL-14
PA-04
AZ-08
AZ-05
MN-01
GA-12
NY-20
I say we take most of the top 40 seats, about 30-35 plus one or two sleeper races, WY-AL, VA-05, TX-07, TX-10, OH-07, OH-03 etc.
The repubs probably take about three of the top 20, maybe a sleeper like PA-11, IA-03, UT-02.
NY 25- Maffei really has this one
NY 13- The R’s can’t find anyone top tier or tenth tier
MD 1 – Seats oen and the Penninsula has now more D’s than R
NJ 3 – Open seat, Adler looks strong
NJ 7 – Open seat, Stender looks strong
CT 4 – We just have to have a 100% New England!!!
WV 2 – Ann Barth has personality and looks to decapito WV
VA 11- Connolly probably is perfect for the open seat
NC 8 – Kissell is a favorite of mine from 06.
AK AL- But you know, I have not even scratched the surface, we probably have 50 of these red seats we can win!
Our sides losses, pretty minimal at this point. The New House will be 270 D and 165 R.
I think what you’ll find is that a lot of people here are geographically oriented – I know a lot about the west, the Great Lakes States, and the northeast, but I’m really pretty weak on most of the south and I don’t follow Florida or the Great Plains very much.
And you’ll also see that we are far more knowledgable about the districts closest to us, a propinquity factor.
from Jeremiah’s excellent work:
Likely D pickups:
1. New York-25*** (D+3)
Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland
2. Illinois-11*** (R+1)
Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga
3. New York-13*** (D+1)
Mike McMahon v. ???
4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
5. Virginia-11*** (R+1)
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
6. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)
John Adler v. Chris Myers
7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)
Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance
Lean D pickups:
8. New York-26*** (R+3)
Jon Powers v. Chris Lee
9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
10. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
11. Ohio-16*** (R+4)
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
12. Michigan-07 (R+2)
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
13. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson
14. Washington-08 (D+2)
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
15. Alaska-AL (R+14) Provided Young gets thru the primary.
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
Tossup
16. New York-29 (R+5)
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
17. Illinois-10 (D+4)
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
18. Missouri-06 (R+5)
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
19. Florida-24 (R+3)
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
20. Connecticut-04 (D+5)
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
21. North Carolina-08 (R+3)
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robin Hayes
22. Michigan-09 (R+0)
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
23. Ohio-01 (R+1)
Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
24. Nevada-03 (D+1)
Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter
25. Colorado-04 (R+9)
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
Leaning Republican:
26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)
Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman
27. Idaho-01 (R+19)
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
28. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)
Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon
29. California-04*** (R+11)
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
30. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)
Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley
Races to watch:
the 3 FL Cubans, Mean Jean, Bachman MN-6, Goode & Drake in VA, and MO-9 all seem possible. Will have to see the $ reports.
Democratic tossup:
1. Texas-22 (R+15) Until Olson shows big fundraising #s I’ll keep it as a tossup. if Olson surpasses Lampson, that could be it.
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
2. Florida-16 (R+2) (ugh after that “soviet mail piece” – kind of a flake altogether)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey
Lean Democrat
3. Kansas-02 (R+7)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun
4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
6. Georgia-08 (R+8)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
7. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
8. Mississippi-01*** (R+10)
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
9. Louisiana-07 (R+7)
Representative Don Cazayoux v. ???
10. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
11. Arizona-08 (R+1) Bee is one of the most hyped R recruits – let’s see how much money he raises
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
I assume a pickup of 20-25 democratic seats which seems insanely good, but the DCCC has a ton more money, has recruited much better candidates, the individual candidates have raised more, and the republican brand is in the toilet so it’s fairly logical.